College football produces more numbers than most people could ever use.
Points. Yards. Sacks. Turnovers. Recruiting rankings. Transfer-portal rankings. Returning production. Strength of schedule. The list seemingly never ends.
The problem is that one statistic rarely tells the complete story.
A defense could allow very few passing yards because opponents can run the ball whenever they want. An offense could gain 500 yards but repeatedly stall in the red zone. A team could win by 20 points without controlling the game nearly as comfortably as the final score suggests.
That is why we created the OUInsider Analytics system.
The goal is not to make football more complicated. It is to take all those numbers, place them into the proper context and explain what they mean in simple football language.
Think of it this way: If you wanted to know which truck was strongest, you would not judge it only by how fast it could drive. You would also consider how much it could pull, how well it handled difficult roads and whether it consistently reached its destination.
We are doing the same thing with college football teams.
How can we rank teams before they play?
Before the season begins, there are no 2026 game results to evaluate. That means we need an educated starting point.
But an educated starting point should still produce an actual ranking.
That is why OUInsider Analytics will publish a preseason national ranking heading into Week 1. This ranking will be based on the same information used to establish each team’s preseason profile, including:
- How well each team performed last season
- How much meaningful production returns
- Which positions have experience returning
- What each team added through the transfer portal
- Quarterback experience and continuity
- Coaching and scheme continuity
- Overall roster talent and depth
- Strength of the upcoming schedule
The preseason ranking will include each team’s initial OUInsider Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating and Power Index. It will also provide a projected starting point for the College Football Playoff model.
This will not be a ranking based solely on last year’s final standings, recruiting rankings or preseason expectations from other publications. It will be our own evaluation of how strong each team should be before taking the field.
The word meaningful is important.
Returning eight starters sounds good, but all returning starters are not equal. A team returning its quarterback, four offensive linemen and its top three receivers has something valuable. Another team could also return eight starters but lose its quarterback, best pass rusher and both starting cornerbacks.
Those two situations should not receive the same grade.
The transfer portal works the same way. We will not simply count how many players a team added or rely entirely on recruiting stars. We will examine what those transfers have already done in college, which positions they fill and how large a role they are expected to play.
A proven starting left tackle fills a different need than a talented player buried on another team’s depth chart. Both may help, but they should not be valued equally.
That gives every team a logical preseason starting point—and it gives Sooners fans a national ranking to use as a baseline heading into Week 1.
What will the preseason ranking tell us?
The preseason ranking will not tell us which teams are guaranteed to succeed. It will tell us which teams appear strongest before the season provides new evidence.
That distinction matters.
A team ranked No. 3 may have more talent, experience and roster stability than a team ranked No. 15, but that does not guarantee the No. 3 team will win every game. Injuries, development, coaching decisions, turnovers and unexpected breakout players can change the season quickly.
The preseason ranking is best understood as a starting line.
It gives us a way to compare teams before they play, identify the strongest schedules and establish expectations for Oklahoma and its opponents. It also gives us something important to measure against once the games begin.
If Oklahoma starts the season ranked No. 12 in the OUInsider Power Index and moves to No. 7 after several weeks, that tells us the Sooners have performed better than their preseason profile suggested.
If they fall to No. 20, the model will show where the problems are developing.
The ranking is not meant to replace judgment. It is meant to make that judgment more transparent.
What happens once the games begin?
Real results gradually replace preseason projections.
Imagine the preseason model as writing something in pencil. Week 1 gives us our first opportunity to begin writing over it in ink.
We should not completely change our opinion of a team because it dominated one overmatched opponent. We also should not erase months of roster research because a talented team looked rusty in its opener.
After Week 1, the preseason information will still matter, but actual performance will begin affecting every ranking.
After Week 2, game results will matter more.
As the season continues, the preseason information will matter less until the teams show us exactly who they are.
That prevents the model from wildly overreacting to one game while still rewarding teams that consistently perform well.
The preseason ranking will remain part of the model, but its influence will gradually decline. By the middle and later stages of the season, what teams are doing on the field will matter far more than what we expected them to do in August.
What do the OUInsider ratings mean?
We created separate measurements because every number answers a different question. Plus, I (Brandon Drumm) like to nerd out, and if you know me at all outside of following me on OUInsider platforms, you know I am into this type of stuff, along with Marvel movies, nerding out on New Rockstars Emergency Awesome and other Youtube channels of that ilk.
On top of that, why not have a little a fun with all of the numbers and see if we can’t come with a better system than others? So here we are…
OUInsider Defensive Rating — ODR
ODR asks one simple question: How good is this defense?
It considers points allowed, overall efficiency, turnovers, explosive plays, sacks, tackles for loss, rushing defense, passing defense, opposing quarterback performance and yards allowed per play.
In even simpler terms:
- Does the defense prevent points?
- Does it force mistakes?
- Does it stop big plays?
- Does it create negative plays?
- Can it stop both the run and pass?
A defense must do more than one thing well to earn an elite ODR.
OUInsider Offensive Rating — OOR
OOR asks: How consistently does this offense move the ball and score?
It will measure scoring, efficiency, explosive plays, quarterback performance, rushing and passing production, turnovers, protection and the offense’s ability to finish drives.
An offense that gains yards but cannot score will not receive the same rating as one that consistently turns possessions into points.
OUInsider Power Index — OPI
OPI is our overall team-strength ranking.
It combines what a team does offensively and defensively while accounting for opponent quality and where games are played.
Before the season, OPI will be based primarily on the preseason team profile. Once games begin, actual performance will increasingly determine the rating.
If ODR measures the defense and OOR measures the offense, OPI answers the bigger question:
How good is the entire team right now?
The preseason national ranking will be ordered by OPI. We will have our initial OPI up today as well.
Game Control Index — GCI
Sometimes the final score lies—or at least hides part of the truth.
A team may win by 14 after returning two interceptions for touchdowns. Another may win by seven despite controlling the ball, consistently moving it and kneeling inside the opponent’s territory at the end.
GCI measures who truly controlled the game.
It examines sustained drives, scoring opportunities, field position, possession quality and how consistently each team dictated what happened.
GCI will become especially useful after Week 1 because it can help explain whether a team’s performance was as convincing as the final score suggests.
OUInsider Matchup Predictor — OMP
OMP compares two teams and estimates who should win.
It will consider each team’s offensive and defensive strengths, matchup advantages, home-field advantage, injuries, recent performance and opponent quality.
Starting after Week 2, we can use OMP for weekly game predictions, including an estimated winning percentage and projected score.
It will not guarantee a result. Nothing can. It will show which team owns the clearest statistical advantages and explain why.
How does this create a CFP predictor?
Once every team has an OPI rating and every matchup has an estimated win probability, we can play the season thousands of times inside the model.
No, we are not physically replaying the games.
The model runs different possibilities based on each team’s likelihood of winning every remaining matchup. Some simulations will have Oklahoma beating Michigan. Others may have Michigan winning. The more likely outcome will occur more often.
Before Week 1, the CFP model will use the preseason rankings, projected team strength and scheduled matchups to establish initial playoff probabilities. Those probabilities will not be final. They will change as soon as real results begin replacing projections.
After enough simulations, we can estimate each team’s chances of:
- Reaching its conference championship game
- Winning its conference
- Making the College Football Playoff
- Hosting a first-round CFP game
- Receiving a first-round bye
- Advancing through the bracket
- Winning the national championship
The 2026 CFP remains a 12-team field containing the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions; the highest-ranked champion from the other six FBS conferences; and seven at-large teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a place if it finishes inside the final CFP top 12. The four highest-ranked teams receive first-round byes. The official CFP format is explained here.
Our predictor will follow those actual rules instead of simply selecting the 12 teams with the highest OPI.
What comes next for Oklahoma?
Before the season begins, we will publish the first OUInsider preseason national ranking and show where Oklahoma stands among the country’s top teams.
We will also explain the Sooners’ initial offensive, defensive and overall ratings, identify the strengths and concerns behind those numbers and compare Oklahoma with the teams it will face during the season.
Following Oklahoma’s opener against UTEP, we will publish our first updated 2026 ratings and explain what the performance means for the Sooners.
We will then examine how OU’s strengths and weaknesses match up with Michigan before the Sooners travel to Ann Arbor on Sept. 12. Oklahoma’s official 2026 schedule is available here.
After Week 2, we will begin expanding the weekly coverage with matchup predictions, national rankings, projected winners and updated CFP probabilities.
These analytics will never replace watching the games, studying film, talking to sources or understanding injuries and personnel changes.
They give us another tool.
Our reporting tells us what is happening around Oklahoma football. The film shows us how it is happening. The analytics help measure how well it is happening—and what it could mean next.
That is the entire purpose of OUInsider Analytics: take complicated numbers, turn them into simple football answers and give Sooners fans something useful that they cannot find anywhere else.
SO THAT BRINGS US TO PRESEASON RANKINGS AND CFP PREDICTIONS BEFORE WEEK ONE, ALONG WITH HIGHLIGHTING HOW OKLAHOMA FAIRS WITHIN THE OUINSIDER.COM MODEL I CREATED…
Initial OUInsider Top 25
- Notre Dame
- Oregon
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas
- Texas A&M
- Texas Tech
- Ole Miss
- Oklahoma
- Miami
- LSU
- USC
- Tennessee
- Washington
- South Carolina
- BYU
- Alabama
- Penn State
- Florida
- Louisville
- SMU
- Nebraska
- Clemson
- Utah
FURTHER EXPLAINING SOME OF WHAT THE MODEL DID TO CREATE THE RANKINGS ABOVE:
The model’s calculations incorporate opponent-adjusted 2025 performance, ESPN’s returning-production figures, 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite, On3’s Transfer Portal Team Rankings and the preseason human polls.
However, the human polls account for only 5% of the CFP-selection layer and have no impact on the OUInsider Power Index—or OPI—itself.
The Top 25 represents OUR INITIAL PROJECTIONS—not a ranking of what teams accomplished in 2025.
Look, Notre Dame has one of the easiest schedules known to man—and it became even easier after Lincoln Riley and USC backed out of the annual rivalry game with the Irish this season. Yes, I know the series is expected to return at a later date. For now, however, Notre Dame has only two games that most people would consider truly “difficult”: BYU on October 17 and Miami on November 7. That isn’t meant to undermine or undervalue SMU, which Notre Dame hosts on November 21. I simply struggle to believe that, with all the talent on its roster, Notre Dame won’t be a well-oiled, CFP-ready machine by that point in the season.
I think most wouldn’t have much of an argument with our analytically driven Top 25. If you do, please, put your issues with it on the Lindsey Board VIP thread dedicated to this when the board launches later today! Want to hear your thoughts on it, our system and things you might want added to the metrics we are using within the model itself.
Oklahoma’s Ratings Across the Board and Within the Model:
Oklahoma’s initial profile:
- OUInsider Top 25: No. 10
- OOR: 70.3
- ODR: 73.4
- OPI: 74.7
- Expected wins: 7.9 — essentially an 8–4 baseline (higher than most other models nationally. Explained below)
- CFP probability: 25.9%
- First-round bye: 3.6%
- National-title probability: 1.1%
The important takeaway — in my/OUInsider’s opinion — is that OU’s difficult schedule lowers its projected record and playoff probability—but it does not lower the Sooners’ neutral-field power rating.
AN IMPORTANT QUESTION THAT I FEEL SOME WILL ASK, SO WE WILL ANSWER BELOW…
Do human polls affect the OUInsider rankings?
Yes—but only in one specific place.
The AP and Coaches Polls will not influence OOR, ODR or OPI. Those ratings are intended to answer how strong each team appears based on its performance, returning contributions, quarterback situation, portal additions, roster talent and continuity.
Human opinion should not change that answer.
However, the College Football Playoff is ultimately selected by people. Preseason expectations can influence how teams are viewed, how quickly they rise and how severely they are punished for a loss.
For that reason, a consensus of the AP and Coaches Polls will account for 5% of the preseason CFP predictor.
That influence will decrease once games begin. When the CFP selection committee releases its first rankings, the committee’s actual evaluation will replace the preseason poll component.
Think of it this way: The OUInsider Power Index tells us how good a team appears to be. The CFP predictor estimates how likely that team is to be selected.
Those are connected questions, but they are not exactly the same question.
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